I hope my blog has been an enjoyable read for everyone thus far. As the official posting period draws to a close, I think it would be apt to draw some visions of green consumerism in the (near) future.
For that, I think the journal article Sustainable lifestyles 2050: stakeholder visions, emerging practices and future research is an interesting read. The paper was based on the results of a study known as SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 which brought together experts from various fields to look at possible scenarios of sustainable consumption in the EU in 2050.
The paper presents an interesting methodology known as backcasting, where researchers come up with a possible, ideal case scenario in the future, taking into consideration context and projected data, and then "work backwards" to show the necessary actions for the scenario to come true. In this study, researchers devised four visions of "sustainable lifestyles" in 2050:
As can be seen, the four scenarios are based on two main uncertainties identified through preliminary studies - whether technology will be "globally circulating or based on local competencies and resources" and whether society will be "based on informal and local social ties and skills or based on their formal and most often professional qualifications" (Mont, Neuvonen & Lähteenoja, 2014:27). In essence, if we pool our technological resources globally, resource efficiency and new technologies will open new routes to sustainable consumption, while if we specialise and harness local technologies, reduction in miles travelled by our products will minimise our carbon footprint. On the other spectrum, if society is based on expert knowledge, then better infrastructure and services will give rise to a sustainable production and consumption loop, while if collaboration takes the front wheel then sustainable consumption becomes possible due to sharing and political will to drive change.
The four scenarios show the potential for sustainable consumption to become the norm rather than the exception by mid-century. The visions show something I feel people will be open to - that green consumerism is not about buying only green goods and depriving ourselves of material comfort, but a way of life that celebrates community spirit, social interaction and exploits technology to provide us with a modern yet low-carbon lifestyle. Of course, this is much easier said than done and if anything, the backcasting was the easy part. The difficult part lies in convincing key stakeholders to take the steps towards one of the visions, or some midpoint.
The journal article provides an optimistic outlook, but there are gaps to be filled. Firstly, the visions were based on the assumptions that limited fossil fuels reserves and a cap on GHG emissions will force the EU to diversify and work towards a greener future. However, as we know, actions to mitigate the two problems have been slow to take place. Governments may not necessarily take action to work towards sustainable consumption, preferring to stick to the status quo and not recognising the urgency of the problem. Another problem lies in the methodology itself. Backcasting is largely a qualitative analysis (Mont et al., 2014) and is subjected to inherent bias of researchers and uncertainty of future events. While a lot of effort has been put into ensuring that the scenarios are feasible and based on factual evidence, projection and extrapolation of data always leads to a certain level of uncertainty. Lastly, and this has been identified by the authors, changes in mindsets and the way policymaking is done is also crucial in realising the above visions. The visions devised are wide and encompassing in nature, and this will require big-picture and long-term thinking by policymakers. This is not always the case, however, as policies in different sectors of the economy are sometimes done so in isolation. A huge shift in mindsets is required if we are to attain any of the visions of a future where sustainable lifestyles is the norm.
Perhaps this quote from my leadership coach is apt at this point:
"Action without vision is merely doing.
Vision without action is merely a dream.
Vision with action can change the world."
The vision is set. Let us move towards a future where sustainable lifestyles and green consumerism culture is the norm.
References:
Mont, O., Neuvonen, A. & Lähteenoja, S. (2014). Sustainable lifestyles 2050: stakeholder visions, emerging practices and future research. Journal of cleaner production, 63, 24-32. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.09.007
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